Archiv der Kategorie: Allgemein

Momentaufnahme – 10. November vor milden und kalten Wintern in Mitteleuropa

von

Hallo,

der 10. November vor den 20 mildesten Wintern in Mitteleuropa seit 1950:

Bodendruckabweichung:

compday

Zum Vergleich, 10. November 2016:

91

 

Bodendruckabweichung des 10. November vor den 20 kältesten Wintern in Mitteleuropa seit 1950:

compday

Meine Meinung:

Vor kalten Wintern befindet sich hoher Druck bei Alaska, Grönland und angrenzenden Meeresgebieten. Dieser fehlt 2016. Jedoch fehlt 2016 auch der hohe Druck südlich der Aleuten, wie er vor milden Wintern üblich ist. Es besteht natürlich die Möglichkeit, dass von diesen Gebieten Tiefdrucktätigkeit ausgeht, sich in den Atlantik fortsetzt und in der Folge zu einer Zonalisierung führt und Mitteleuropa zum Dezember hin SW – bis W – Strömung erhält.

Über Europa und Asien gibt es sowohl Anzeichen für „kalt“ (Tiefs auf 40 – 50°N) als auch für „mild“ (Ostatlantik, Sibirien).

Geopotentialabweichung am 10. November vor den 20 mildesten Wintern seit 1950 auf der 500hPa – Ebene:

compday

Zum Vergleich, 10. November 2016:

91

 

Geopotentialabweichung am 10. November vor den 20 kältesten Wintern in Mitteleuropa auf der 500hPa Ebene.

compday

Meine Meinung:

Weitgehend inverse Situation zu „kalt“ im Raum Amerika / Grönland, Ausnahme Aleuten / Westküste Kanadas. Atlantik eher Richtung „mild“. Asien Hinweise auf „kalt“ (tiefes Geopotential zwischen 40 und 50°N).

Geopotentialabweichung am 10. November in der Stratosphäre vor den 20 mildesten Wintern seit 1950 in Mitteleuropa:

compday

 

Zum Vergleich, 10. November 2016:

91

 

Geopotentialabweichung am 10. November in der Stratosphäre vor den 20 kältesten Wintern in Mitteleuropa seit 1950:

compday

 

Meine Meinung:

Ähnlichkeiten kann man zu beiden Gruppen finden, mit „mild“ stimmt die Lage positiven Geopotentials ziemlich gut überein, mit „kalt“ die Flankierung tiefen Geopotentials.

Fazit: Die Küche im Raum Kanada / Grönland braut möglicherweise etwas zusammen, was dann stromab zur Zonalisierung führt und damit zu mildem Winter in Mitteleuropa. Die Frage ist, ob der Widerstand über Asien (winterliches Hoch, übernormale Ausbreitung der Schneedecke) gegenteilige Effekte bewirkt oder einfach plattgewalzt wird.

Ich werde für den 20. November einen erneuten Vergleich durchführen. Es ist dann zwar ebenfalls nur eine „Momentaufnahme“, aber es zeigt sich dann „auch“ eine Entwicklung.

Gruß

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in Canada (East)

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in the east of Canada (defined as 45 – 60°N 95 – 50°W).

Novembers before cold / mild December:

bnn70eji9_

Novembers before cold / mild January:

c0abhynjaf

Novembers before cold / mild February:

ouhbuk8ofh

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in Canada (West)

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in the west of Canada (defined as 45 – 60°N 140 – 95°W).

Novembers before cold / mild December:

utzt7r_gfz

Novembers before cold / mild January:

7qffoaa4xi

Novembers before cold / mild February:

cjnbbfgoti

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in the USA (East)

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in the east of the USA (defined as 30 – 50°N 95 – 65°W).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

y_fep0mhsj

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

6naczvalnd

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

t_idiabrux

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in the USA (West)

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in the west of the USA (defined as 30 – 50°N 125 – 95°W).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

oqrpahcypk

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

0nrfcpfxd4

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

c68mqfykro

…………in Alaska

 

Novembers before a cold / mild December in Alaska:

h38a7x7ava

Novembers before a cold / mild January:slw6e63gjb

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

bmapt6jb4y

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in North Western Europe

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers ( January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in North Western Europe (defined as 55 – 67.5°N 25°W – 0).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

y785if906z

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

xgfwukmghu

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

csudrmc0vv

Yours

KHB

 

November before cold / mild Winters in South Eastern Europe

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in South Eastern Europe (defined as 37.5 – 45°N 17.5 – 30°E).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

s127hyjwrr

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

7rrrdltswg

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

jwl76yr2g2

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in Eastern Europe

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers (January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in Eastern Europe (defined as 45 – 60°N 15 – 60° E).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

hx73szzj0a

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

sjamtlr_gz

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

r4pbirbylw

Yours

KHB

November before cold / mild Winters in Southern Europe

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers ( January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers ( January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in Southern Europe (defined as 37.5 – 45°N 10°W – 17.5°E).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

papiyeo0xn

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

dzdtsumppi

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

6b4jl6eexr

Yours

KHB

 

November before cold / mild Winters in Northern Europe

von

Hello,

you subtract the surface sea level pressure of the Novembers before the 10 mildest Decembers ( January / February months) from the Novembers before the 10 coldest Decembers (January / February months) since 1987. You get the areas of the greatest differences  between the two groups, what you can see below are the charts leading to a cold month, just the opposite leads to a mild month in Northern Europe (defined as 55 – 70°N 5°W – 32.5°E).

Novembers before a cold / mild December:

ngse3bz7f9

Novembers before a cold / mild January:

uecvpcyj0k

Novembers before a cold / mild February:

dntpewagv9

Yours

KHB